I suppose I can smugly point out that Rafa was my pick to win the Aussie Open all along, even when it was fashionable to tip Murray or Federer in the build-up to the tournament. Even after Nadal's semifinal marathon with Verdasco the other night, I thought the title was his to lose. I've been convinced since last spring's clay court season that Nadal holds a virtually impregnable mental edge over Federer now: quite simply, he's in Roger's head. The best chance for a 14th Slam title for the world #2 entailed Verdasco or someone else eliminating Nadal before the final. Once a match gets into a critical stage against Nadal, I think deep down inside Roger just doesn't believe he can win. He knows his nemesis won't go away and unless he can summon near-perfect tennis to blow him off the court, eventually the Spaniard will prevail in a war of attrition.

*Article citation: http://www.nedgallagher.com/journal/